Market Commentaries



Eur/GBP

USD  

 

Feedback on Commentaries and Analysis is welcome
Sheil Aggarwal


select * from bbg_commentary where 1=1 order by date desc
  • 22 February 2023

    USD CLO AAA

    $275m of liquidity today across the stack, with US LSTA continuing to soften -13bp dod.  AAA soften too, trading range today is 143dm-175dm with benchmarks 143dm-158dm and our AAA Index shifting to 145dm.

    USD CLO Mezz/Equity

    In mezz, most of the activity is in BB with 18 trades in a 761dm-1040dm range with benchmarks 851dm-935dm and our BB Index shifting wider to 872dm, the wider end of the trading range (wide of index) includes a MM CLO and credits with weaker MVOCs (<103) whilst the tighter end of the range is dominated by credits with strong MVOCs (>104.5).

    EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO

    The only AA trade, CRNCL 2017-8X B1, traded at 287 dm. Considering this is a low margin bond paying just 130 bps this is a widening in AA levels. We see that also in Bosphorus VIII pricing at +315 today.

    A lot of single A’s traded today, at around the 366 dm level. Again, given the low margin on the bonds, this is a widening by about 10bps on average. Bosphorus VIII priced at +440, which is 15 bps wider than Trinitas IV but 70 bps wider than Bushy Park.

    There are a lot of BBB trades. Their average stated margin is 320 bps and they traded at around 518 dm. Given their characteristics this is also a widening in BBB levels. Bosphorus VIII priced at +660 which is a lot wider than recent deals. Two of today’s trades also traded on 15 Feb. CORDA 22X D traded at 88.11 today and 91.13 on 15 Feb. HNLY 6X D traded at 91.03 today and 92.06 on 15 Feb.

    ANCHE 6X E, a BB, traded at 851 dm today – in line with our model prediction. Bosphorus VIII priced at +900, about 75 bps wider than recent new issues.

    In single B MROPK 1X E has traded at 1167 dm, again as expected. We have a single B new issue pricing point because Bosphorus VIII printed at +1249.

    There are 4 equity trades. All traded with a 5 handle in price and between 23% and 25% in yield. NAVs ranged from -4 to +20.


  • 21 February 2023

    USD CLO Mezz/Equity

    Just one trade today post holiday, US LSTA 100 Index -17bp on 17th close.  TRNTS 2020-12X E covers at 90.87 at 944dm / 7y WAL - strong MVOC 105 with high coupon +740bps and otherwise clean metrics and a good manager record, the coupon drags this wide to the BB Index 852dm

    EUR AAA CLO

    AAAs have traded around 174 dm. Bushy Park priced at +170. The BWIC trades are mostly amortising deals with low margins which we could have expected to trade tighter. This might indicate that AAAs have reached a level which is resistant to a further rally.

    EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO

    The two AAs are both fixed rate. The coupons are much lower than is being paid by floaters currently. As a spread over Euribor they have traded at +300 but the buyers for these bonds probably have different yield targets. Bushy Park priced its FRNs at +305.

    The only BB, CORDA 16X E, traded at 893 dm. This compares to the +825 of Bushy Park.

    There are 4 single B trades. Three of them are grouped around 1179 dm, which fits in with Trinitas IV pricing of 1150 dm. One of the BWIC trades however, MDPKE 15X FR, has traded at 1328 dm. Even taking into account the high bond margin our model does indicate this is a cheap level.


  • 17 February 2023

    USD CLO AAA

    Limited liquidity today given the holiday weekend with only 2 trades.  US LSTA 100 Index -18bp dod given the market's uncertainty on the peak of interest rate timing.  CIFC 2015-1A ARR covers 99.45 at 141dm / 1.9y WAL and is post reinvestment so trades inside the AAA Index.

    USD CLO Mezz/Equity

    1 x AA trade REG12 2019-1A BR cover 98.15 at 206dm / 4.7y WAL, low coupon +160bps but MVOC is in line and does trade inside the AA Index as a result with all metrics clean.

    EUR AAA CLO

    It is a light day in secondary BWICs since two deals priced in Primary. One AAA bond has traded, CRNCL 2022-15X A, which even though it is 171 dm, it is a low margin bond and we see this a slight softening in AAA levels. The New Issues priced at +175.

    EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO

    The two single A’s traded around 367 dm. We also see this as a softening given the characteristics of these secondary bonds. Avoca XXVIII priced at 360 dm.


  • 16 February 2023

    EUR AAA CLO

    Only one AAA traded today. BRGPT 1X A traded at 179dm. This is slightly softer than our model predicted given its low margin, but still within the range of current price talk.

    EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO

    The three single A trades are all very seasoned deals, two of them are amortising. They have traded around 327dm, as expected for current spread levels.

    BBBs have traded around 552 dm, again as expected.

    BBs have traded around 872 dm, again as expected. The wide trade is NWDSE 2019-19X E, at 1001 dm which is due to its low MVOC of 101.96%. TIKEH 2X ER traded at 87.61 and on 10 Jan 2023 it traded at 83.50 which shows the rally in BBs in the last month.

    Two single B trades have taken place, around 1182 dm.


  • 15 February 2023

    EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO

    It’s been a busy day in secondary BWICs. Three AAs have traded. There are all from more recent deals with higher margins – around 370 bps. They have all traded just above par. Given that the Non-Call End date is in 2024 for two of them our model predicted a greater premium for them. As a consequence of the par CVRs the spreads are very high at around 369 dm.

    The same thing applies for FICLO 2022-1A C at the single A level. It has a margin of 439 bps but still only traded at 100.06 which is around 438 dm.

    A lot of BBBs have traded. These are all lower margin, seasoned bonds. The average spread is 483 dm, which even though it looks tight is in line with what we would expect for bonds with these characteristics.

    BBs have traded around 913 dm. This compares with 850a talk for Trinitas Euro IV.

    The two single B’s have traded at different spreads: AVOCA 13X FRR at 1200 dm and DRYD 2021-91A F at 1360 dm. Trinitas Euro IV is talked within this range at 1200 – 1275 dm.


  • 9 February 2023

    USD CLO AAA

    $110m of liquidity today with $100m of this AAA trading which have tightened on the day, US LSTA 100 Index +7bp dod.  AAA trade 131dm-146dm with benchmarks 141dm-146dm and our AAA Index tightening to 145dm as the broader market continues to rally and MVOCs strengthen.  1 x MM CLO AAA GOCAP 2013-16A A1R2 covers 98.39 at 207dm / 4y WAL which is tighter than the 218dm area for the last trading comps near the end of January.

    USD CLO Mezz/Equity

    BBB trade 397dm-580dm with our BBB Index unchanged at 434dm, trades wide of the index are exclusively weaker MVOC (<108) which supports our index level with the tight end driven by MVOCs around 110 (+2pts on benchmark).

    EUR AAA CLO

    There are 4 x AAA trades today, at an average spread of 157dm. This is in line with the print of Invesco Euro IX at +165 today.

    EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO

    There is one equity trade today. DRYD 2020-74X SUB traded at 44.13 / 20.76% yield. Its NAV is -14.31. It has a 2.2% CCC bucket.


  • 8 February 2023

    USD CLO AAA

    $142m of liquidity today, with US LSTA 100 flat dod and CLO spreads in high mezz tighter.  AAA trade 135dm-186dm with benchmarks 140dm-153dm with our AAA Index unchanged 148dm, high performing conservative managers trade inside the index (eg. Blackrock) and higher coupon bonds trade wide of the index today with our index unchanged.

    USD CLO Mezz/Equity

    AA trade 189dm-214dm with benchmarks 201dm-214dm and our AA Index tightens to 218dm as the market tightens with more liquidity at this rating level, trades inside the index are outperformers in terms of MVOC (>126).  Single-A trade 177dm-318dm with our single-A index tightening into 310dm, a Palmer Sq static CLO trade is at the tight end and a NY Life bond with a strong MVOC (118) trades inside the index.  BBB trade 329dm-615dm with benchmarks 419dm-473dm and our BBB Index unchanged 434dm as MVOC continues to drive tiering.  BB trade 730dm-1214dm with benchmarks 834dm-899dm and our BB Index tightens slightly to 863dm, trades wide of the index influenced by low MVOC/high coupon context.

    EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO

    Spreads are grinding tighter. A couple of AAs have traded, around 318dm mark. In New Issues Avoca 28 is talked at MH300s.

    BBBs have traded around 476dm. Of course these are older lower margin bonds. Avoca 28 is talked at M500s.

    BBs have traded around 817dm. Avoca 28 is talked at M800s.

    PRVD 7X F, a single B, traded at 1142dm. This does seem very tight. Obviously single B price discovery is hard to come by so we aren’t quite sure whether this is an outlier or all single B’s have rallied this much.


  • 7 February 2023

    USD CLO AAA

    $50m of liquidity today across the stack, spreads flat, US LSTA 100 Index +12bp dod.  AAA trade 138dm-153dm with our AAA Index unchanged at 148dm, a high performing benchmark Blackrock bond MAGNE 2021-31A A1 covers 98.76 at 138dm / 5.1y WAL inside our index.

    USD CLO Mezz/Equity

    Single-A trade 265dm-277dm inside our Index 314dm with MVOC driving the 2 trades 116.3-117 above benchmarks 115.7.  BBB trade 428dm-759dm with benchmarks 428dm-441dm and our BBB Index unchanged at 434dm.  At the wide end is STCR 2016-1A DR CVR 83.35 at 759dm / 4.7y WAL – ADR high 1.04, MVOC low 104.4 (benchmark 107.9) and Jnr OC cushion low 1.8.  BB trade 840dm-1028dm with our BB Index unchanged at 867dm with the wide end of trading driven by bonds with low MVOC 101-102 and lower Jnr OC cushions (around 3%).

    EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO

    Just one single A today. OTOPK 1X C traded at 377dm. This is in line with new issues talked in 390 – 400 area, bearing in mind this is a lower margin deal.

    BBBs have traded around 455dm. Of course this looks very tight compared to new issue levels of 600 – 625 dm but these are very old vintages with an average margin of 280 bps.

    In the BB space RPARK 1X ER traded very tight at 746dm but that is because it is very delevered and is only 4yr remaining maturity. CFOUR 1X E has not started paying down and traded at 928dm.


  • 6 February 2023

    USD CLO AAA

    $215m of liquidity today across the stack with the majority at AAA.  AAA trade 139dm-178dm with benchmarks 139dm-159dm and our AAA Index 148dm with WARF and high coupons pulling some 1st pays wide of the index, 2nd pay AAA trade 180dm-204dm.

    USD CLO Mezz/Equity

    At BBB MDPK 2019-34A DR covers 96.5 at 408dm / 6.1y WAL which is inside our BBB Index 434dm, the MVOC 109.7 outperforms.  BBs trade 738dm-909dm with our BB Index 867dm, with bonds from a tier 1 manager Blackrock with strong MVOC (105area) trading 738dm-753dm inside the index.

    EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO

    Just 2 equity trades today. Both pieces traded in the L20s %Yield. NAVs are heading back to positive territory. Both these deals had small positive NAVs and in general European equity NAVs are mostly in the range from -10 to +10.


  • 3 February 2023

    USD CLO AAA

    4 x AAA trades only today 21.4m of notional with spreads firm, US LSTA 100 Index +16bp dod.  AAA trade 142dm-144dm with our AAA Index tightening (-1dm) to 146dm, all trades are in reinvestment (EoRP 2023-2024) with shorter wals and are benchmarks with clean metrics.

    EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO

    A good number of BB trades today. They have traded around 830 dm. The last BBs in secondary were about a week ago at around 900 dm. It did look like the market had tightened when Capital Four V priced at 830 dm but the print of Barings Euro 2023-1 at 900 dm has thrown this into doubt. It will be interesting to see where BBs go from here.


  • 2 February 2023

    USD CLO Mezz/Equity

    $110m of liquidity today, predominantly BBB and Equity with spreads remaining firm and US LSTA 100 +20bp dod.  BBB trade 385dm-474dm with benchmarks 418dm-441dm and our BBB Index unchanged at 434dm.  MVOC > 108 drives those trades inside the index.  At the wide end is TCW 2021-2A D CVR 91.5 at 474dm / 7.8y WAL (EoRP 2026) – MVOC is lower than benchmark 106.7 and the manager TCW has a weaker profile so execution is wide to our index.

    EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO

    Just one BBB trade. DRYD 2015-39X DRR traded at 538dm showing BBBs still grinding tighter.


  • 1 February 2023

    USD CLO Mezz/Equity

    $90m of liquidity, with the majority BBB/BB with spreads firmer at BBB, US LSTA flat dod.  BBB trade 371dm-448dm with benchmarks 406dm-448dm and our BBB Index tighter at 434dm, strong MVOC (>110) and low coupon (<300bps) drive trades inside the index.  15 x BB trades today, all wide of the index 970dm-1282dm given MVOCs on these trades are close to shortfall (average MVOC 100.7 today) with benchmarks in 102.70 context but the positive market dynamic does allow for execution wide of the index in a number of weaker names proving liquidity is strong.

    EUR AAA CLO

    Spreads continue to grind tighter today. AAAs have traded around 163dm, a recent tight. This is helped by AQUE 2021-6X A, a deal with good credit fundamentals.

    EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO

    AAs have ratcheted in to 275dm.

    Single A’s have traded at 354dm

    Just one single B traded. HAYEM 8X F is at 1781dm which is very wide for a single B but this bond has a very low MVOC of 95.96%, one of the very lowest of its cohort.


  • 31 January 2023

    USD CLO Mezz/Equity

    Less than $10m exchanged hands today given month end, US LSTA saw it’s first day on day drop this year -1bp on yesterday’s close.  2 x AA trades in a 263dm-279dm range which are wide of our AA Index 234dm – one bond is high coupon and the other is post reinvestment.  2 x BB trades 791dm-960dm range and our BB Index 870dm, MAGNE 2015-15A ER is at the tight end with CVR 89.11 at 791dm / 5.6y WAL – very clean metrics and a benchmark manager Blackrock which usually trades inside our index, CGMS 2019-1A D (EoRP 2024) trades wide to the index CVR 88.15 at 960dm / 6.1y WAL – MVOC 101.23 which is lower than benchmarks like the Blackrock bond which is the key driver to execution whilst other metrics are in line.

    EUR AAA CLO

    The only AAA, CRNCL 2014-4A ARRR, traded at 169dm, in line with recent days.

    EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO

    A lot of AAs have traded. Their average spread is 289dm.

    2 x BBBs have traded at around 561dm, which does look softer to us, by around 20 bps.


  • 30 January 2023

    USD CLO AAA

    $113m of liquidity today, all IG with spreads firm, US LSTA 100 Index +8bp dod.  AAA trade 137dm-162dm with benchmarks 141dm-148dm and our AAA Index shifting to 144dm.

    USD CLO Mezz/Equity

    There are 2 x post reinvestment AA and single-A trades which execute inside the index given the very short wals, whilst BBB trade 391dm-458dm with benchmarks 437dm-446dm and our BBB Index in the middle of this range 443dm, NEUB 2016-21A DR2 covers 96.5 at 391dm / 7.6y WAL which is inside the index given the strong MVOC 108.64 (versus 107.6 benchmark), top tier manager name Neuberger and clean metrics.

    EUR AAA CLO

    Just the one AAA trade today. CLRPK 1X A1RR traded at 169dm, an unchanged level for AAAs.

    EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO

    INVSC 2X B1R, a AA, traded at 277dm, also unchanged.

    Single A’s have traded around 355dm.

    BBBs have traded around 540dm.

    BBs are around 913dm.


  • 27 January 2023

    EUR AAA CLO

    Just 4 x AAAs today. They have traded at 171dm. They are all very seasoned deals, past their NC end periods and with low margins. We believe these spreads are in line with recent days.


  • 26 January 2023

    EUR AAA CLO

    Just 2 x AAAs today and both of them Sculptor deals. They have traded around 183dm which is exactly in line with AAA spreads.

    EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO

    3 equity pieces traded via BWIC today. They all traded between 35h to 41h in price which in yield terms is between mid-teens to L30s. They all have CCC buckets between 3% and 4.5%.


  • 25 January 2023

    USD CLO AAA

    $93m of notional across 23 trades today, spreads continue to tighten evidenced by AAA and BB spreads today, US LSTA 100 Index +1bp dod.  AAA trade 136dm-195dm with benchmarks 142dm-157dm and our AAA Index tightening into 157dm, there are 2 x MM CLO AAAs that trade 213dm-225dm which see a significant shift from the last AAA trades at the end of 2022 in 270dm context, which is in line with the broader market rally.

    USD CLO Mezz/Equity

    BB trade 800dm-1471dm with benchmarks 868dm-910dm which is neatly wrapped around our BB Index 887dm, MVOC dynamics (into 103 context) drive those trades inside the index whilst the outlier trade is MP12 2018-1A E CVR 70.27 at 1471dm / 5.6y WAL – significant MV shortfall 97.8 MVOC, ADR 1%, Jnr OC cushion 1.96 (the manager Marble Point does run a lower cushion than the representative cohort) with bond close to end of reinvestment in July this year leaving little time to proactively resolve the shortfall.

    EUR AAA CLO

    AAAs are holding steady at 178dm. As an example SPAUL 5X ARR traded at 98.10 on 17 Jan 2023 and at 98.20 today.

    EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO

    2 x BBBs have traded. They are both relatively recent issues at current margins in 600s. Both have traded just below par which is around 650dm.

    BBs have traded at 905dm which is unchanged.

    Two single B’s have traded at around 1297dm. This is about 70 bps tighter than the previous day even allowing for the different bond characteristics. Both bonds have very good MVOC levels.


  • 24 January 2023

    USD CLO AAA

    $170m of liquidity today across seniors, mezz and equity with spreads remaining firm, US LSTA 100 Index +10bp dod.  AAA trade 147dm-220dm with benchmarks 153dm-160dm with our AAA Index 160dm, with the wide end of the range (220dm) driven by a post reinvestment bond.

    USD CLO Mezz/Equity

    26 x BBB trade 372dm-555dm with benchmarks 417dm-499dm and our BBB Index tightening into 452dm, trades wide of the index are post reinvestment and those inside the index are MVOC driven so there is a tightening theme here.  BB trade 781dm-1068dm with benchmarks 872dm-917dm and our BB Index 892dm, similar theme to BBB in that MVOC drives those bonds inside the index but also those wide to the index given their proximity to MV shortfalls, eg. At the wide end is WELF 2019-XA DR CVR 82.55 at 1068dm / 6.8y WAL – MVOC 100.06 and other metrics largely in line.

    EUR AAA CLO

    A heavy day of EUR trading today. AAAs have traded around 166dm. This is a little firmer, especially in the longer maturities.

    EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO

    AAs are steady. They have traded at 267dm.

    Single A’s have traded around 342dm. This looks a little softer in longer dated bonds.

    BBBs look like they have rallied considerably, trading at an average spread of 501dm. But many of these are lower margin bonds so we see BBBs as having firmed up slightly.

    BBs definitely look firmer, at 866dm.

    There is one single B trade. BECLO 8X FR traded at 1397dm which is in line with our prediction for this rating level.


  • 23 January 2023

    USD CLO AAA

    100m of liquidity, all in AAA with spreads continuing to firm up, trading range today is 145dm-163dm (all bonds in reinvestment and benchmarks) with our AAA Index tightening into 161dm.

    EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO

    AAs are steady. They traded at 269dm today, the same as the previous day.

    Single A’s have traded around 354dm. This is also flat on the day.

    BBBs have traded at 548dm, again steady.


  • 20 January 2023

    USD CLO AAA

    $125m+ of trading today with most of it concentrated at AAA with spreads tightening and keeping up with the rally on the loan side, US LSTA 100 Index +4bp dod.  AAAs trade 154dm-167dm with our AAA Index tightening to 163dm (-7dm), trades today are all benchmarks within reinvestment periods.

    USD CLO Mezz/Equity

    7 x BB trades in a 893dm-1236dm range with our BB Index unchanged 894dm, all trades wide of the index are driven by weaker MVOC profiles. ASTAT 2022-18A E covers 93.5 at 893dm / 4.3y WAL which is at benchmark level and in line with our index, MVOC is strong 101.6, coupon is in line with comps +685bps and metrics are clean, note that the bond is around 7m post reinvestment.

    EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO

    Just the one AA today. BLUME 2021-1X BE traded at 269dm which is unchanged for AAs.

    Single A’s have traded around 346dm which looks around 10 bps tighter to us.

    BBBs look to have faded slightly, perhaps by as much as 20 bps. Both Carlyle trades were from weaker deals however.

    Just the one BB. FICLO 2021-1X E traded in the 930s dm area which is a good level and shows BBs are staying firm.


  • 19 January 2023

    USD CLO AAA

    $32+ of liquidity today, US LSTA 100 Index +1bp dod and CLO spreads remain firm with a little tightening at AAA.  2 x AAA trades today inside our index 170dm in a 154dm-166dm range, RSRVA 2016-3A ARR covers 98.04 at 154dm / 4.7y WAL – clean metrics and an Invesco managed deal / benchmark with EoRP 2026. 

    USD CLO Mezz/Equity

    1 x AA trade APID 2021-37A B covers 97.17 at 210dm / 6.9y WAL – strong MVOC 124.7 and lower coupon structure +160bps to benchmarks so this does trade inside our AA Index 239dm.  Single-As trade 240dm-373dm with our single-A Index 324dm, well inside the index is a very short dated / deleveraging MM CLO DIMND 2019-1A CR CVR 100 at 240dm / 0.8y WAL so off index.  There are 5 x BB trades 802dm-1154dm with our BB Index unchanged 894dm, at the tight end is a Blackrock managed bond MAGNE 2015-15A ER CVR 88.58 at 802dm / 5.6y WAL – MVOC is in line 101.2 but coupon is low +520bps and this is a reflection of the high quality manager and hence does trade well inside our index.  The remaining trades wide of our index are scaled back predominantly due to MV shortfalls as we have been seeing of recent times.

    EUR AAA CLO

    AAAs have tightened again – by around 3 to 5 bps. Today’s trades average 172dm.

    EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO

    AAs have traded around 300dm on the day. This feels softer.

    There are 2 x single A trades, at around 424dm. This is unchanged.

    A raft of BBBs have traded, around 522dm, which is unchanged.

    DRYD 2015-39A ERR, a BB, traded at 996dm which is also unchanged.

    RFTE 2021-1X F, a single B, traded at 1403dm, also as expected.