Market Commentaries



Eur/GBP

USD  

 

Feedback on Commentaries and Analysis is welcome
Sheil Aggarwal


select * from bbg_commentary where 1=1 order by date desc
  • 30 March 2023

    EUR AAA CLO

    CGMSE 2020-2X A1 traded at 198 dm today. It’s only one bond but this is back to the levels we were at before the Credit Suisse / SVB crisis.

    EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO

    HAYEM 6X B1, a AA, traded at 296 dm, also back to pre-crisis levels, and this is in spite of the bond having a low MVOC of 126.35%.


  • 27 March 2023

    EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO

    Two BBBs traded today at an average spread of 583 dm. This is in line with the levels of the last few days.

    A number of BBs have traded, at around 924 dm. This is a significant tightening compared to the last couple of days – by as much as 50 bps.


  • 24 March 2023

    EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO

    Only 1 bond traded via BWIC today. CORDA 23X E, a BB, traded at 86.77 / 992 dm / 8.02 yr, inline with spreads of the last few days.


  • 23 March 2023

    USD CLO AAA

    $52m of liquidity over 29 trades today across IG and SubIG, US LSTA 100 Index +22bp dod and CLO spreads are firmer.  AAA trade 164dm-192dm with benchmarks tighter on the day 177dm-182dm (AAA Index 180dm).

    USD CLO Mezz/Equity

    AA trade 234dm-259dm with benchmarks 252dm-259dm with our AA Index 258dm, 1.4m of APID 2021-36A B covers 96.1 at 234dm / 6.4y WAL inside the index given the strong MVOC 126.2.  Single-A benchmarks trade 314dm-352dm with our single-A Index 341dm, 4 x MM CLOs trade 409dm-428dm.  BBB and BB trades are all non benchmark trades with a number of bonds post reinvestment, MM CLO or low MVOC.

    EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO

    BBBs have traded today at an average spread of +578. This is a little wider than 2 weeks ago but not as much as could have been feared. We can see how BBBs have dropped in value because both ARESE 15X D and TIKEH 6X D traded on 6 March at around 1.25 pts higher than today.

    The average spread on BBs today is 1064 dm. This average is skewed by the fact that two of the trades, GLGE 3X E and ADAGI V-X ER, are from bonds with very low MVOCs. Overall, again we see some widening in generic BBs but it is modest.


  • 22 March 2023

    USD CLO AAA

    $16m of trading today across the stack, US LSTA 100 Index +19bp with spreads generally flat on the day further to the 25bp rate hike by the Fed.  AAA trade 203dm-297dm, post reinvestment bonds with lower Jnr OC cushions and ADRs at 1pt+ pushing these wide to the index.

    USD CLO Mezz/Equity

    AA trade marginally tighter with benchmarks 237dm-269dm with our AA Index tighter at 260dm.  BB trade 904dm-1039dm with one benchmark trade GCBSL 2021-53A E from Golub cover at 88.26 at 904dm / 8.2y WAL which is slightly wide to the index 877dm but has clean metrics from an experienced MM CLO manager in the BSL space (slight premium).

    EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO

    Today we have our first insight into the lower mezz part of the stack since the banking crisis. Two single B’s have traded – at around 1326 dm. This is approx. 100 bps wider than where we were 2 weeks ago.


  • 21 March 2023

    USD CLO AAA

    $117m of liquidity across the stack today with spreads moving sideways with some compression at BB, US LSTA 100 Index +16bp dod.  AAA trade 164dm-475dm with benchmarks 180dm-190dm (our AAA Index 186dm), very short wal post reinvestment  bonds propping up the wide end with low coupon / short wal accounts for trading inside the index. 

    USD CLO Mezz/Equity

    AA trade 279dm-367dm with our AA Index 261dm, with both bonds high coupon (+210-235bps) and SNDPT 2018-1A B2BR with a weak MVOC 120.1 CVR 96.11 at 367dm / 3.4y WAL.  BB trade 849dm-1123dm with benchmarks 849dm-930dm (BB Index 876dm) with WINDR 2017-4A E at the wide end CVR 80.56 at 1123dm / 5.3y WAL – weak MVOC 101.9, post reinvestment and high WARF 2938.


  • 20 March 2023

    USD CLO AAA

    $18m of liquidity today across IG, US LSTA 100 Index -25bp dod.  AAA trade 183dm-235dm with benchmarks 183dm-195dm and our AAA Index softening to 185dm, trades wide of the index are post reinvestment with weaker metrics.

    USD CLO Mezz/Equity

    1 x single-A trade BGCLO 19A CR CVR 94.07 at 384dm / 4.3y WAL with our single-A index widening slightly to 357dm.  This trade has clean metrics but the manager is new so the bond trades at a credit spread premium and hence wide to our single-A index.

    EUR AAA CLO

    Today we have the first EUR BWIC trades since the banking crisis started. Only AAAs have traded but actually they are much more resilient than expected. The average spread is +207 which is not really wider than 2 weeks ago. Since the AAA spread is often the most important driver for new deal execution this is quite encouraging for the market.


  • 17 March 2023

    USD CLO AAA

    Very little liquidity at present given market sentiment is extremely volatile, US LSTA 100 Index -2bp dod.  One AAA trade which is post reinvestment WINDR 2013-1A A1RR CVR 98.75 at 192dm / 1.4y WAL - high ADR 1.7 and low Jnr OC cushion 0.74 and high CCC 8.5% so this bond trades wide to the AAA Index 181dm, whilst typically high quality post-rein AAA trade inside index levels.


  • 16 March 2023

    USD CLO AAA

    $104m of liquidity today across IG, US LSTA 100 Index flat dod and spreads continue to find a landing spot with a softer tone.  AAA trade 178dm-225dm with benchmarks 178dm-187dm and our AAA Index widening to 181dm, the trades wide of the index (209dm-225dm) are driven by high coupon (+200bps) rather than market sentiment. 

    USD CLO Mezz/Equity

    1 x single-A trade TICP 2017-8A BR CVR 93.31 at 339dm / 7.2y WAL (EoRP 2026) near our single-A Index 331dm with metrics at near benchmark levels (MVOC 115.4 / Jnr OC cushion 4.8 and coupon +220bps).  2 x BBB trade 447dm-561dm with our BBB Index widening to 532dm, the trade inside the index at 447dm is post reinvestment whilst APID 2015-20A CR which has EoRP this year trades wide of the index CVR 90.07 at 561dm / 4.7y WAL – MVOC lower than benchmark at 107.6, Jnr OC cushion low 1.96 at ADR elevated at 1% and soon to be post reinvestment.


  • 15 March 2023

    USD CLO Mezz/Equity

    The first trades since last Friday emerge today ($34m) and market has as expected softened significantly at BBB, with BB less so.  US LSTA is -156bps on last Friday's close.  BBB trade 530dm-844dm with benchmarks 530dm-539dm and we shift our BBB Index wider to 522dm, lower MVOC (105area) are hardest hit with dm's in 8-handle context.  BB trade 817dm-909dm with benchmarks 852dm-909dm and our BB Index softens slightly to 879dm, tight to our index is a Blackrock bond MAGNE 2021-29A E CVR 90.17 at 817dm/5.7y WAL - MVOC is strong 105 as well as other metrics and manager's track record is high quality hence trades tight.


  • 10 March 2023

    USD CLO Mezz/Equity

    Just one trade today at the BB level, US LSTA 100 Index -25bp dod.  BB trade is BTNY2 2018-1X D CVR 81.5 at 1088dm / 5.2y WAL, the MVOC 101.64 is at the lower end with Jnr OC cushion also in low/mid percentile at 2.9% and hence trades wide to our BB Index 877dm.


  • 9 March 2023

    USD CLO AAA

    $116m of liquidity today with US LSTA 100 Index flat on the day, spreads marginally tighter at AAA.  AAA trade 151dm-176dm with benchmarks 151dm-158dm and our AAA Index tightening to 155dm, bonds that trade wide of the index today are high coupon / weaker MVOC (L140s context).

    EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO

    Just two BBs today, at around 840 dm. Spreads holding steady.


  • 8 March 2023

    USD CLO Mezz/Equity

    $28m of liquidity today in mid/low mezz, US LSTA 100 Index +9bp dod and CLO spreads flat/tighter.  BBB trade 388dm-777dm with benchmarks 441dm-450dm (BBB Index slightly tighter 453dm), post reinvestment bonds trade tight to the index 388dm-423dm and MVOC <108 profiles skews the tail of bonds that trade wide of the index with ADR and weaker manager profiles secondary driving these bonds as wide as 777dm.  BB trade 830dm-1123dm (BB Index 877dm) with the majority of bond profiles are weaker MVOC <102 that drive bonds well wide of the index level.

    EUR AAA CLO

    A raft of AAAs have traded today. The average traded spread is 195 dm, which is certainly wider. But looking a bit more deeply we see that a lot of the bonds are from deals that have been callable for a long time and these have traded fully to maturity. For bonds where the call date is in the future there is still some refi likelihood getting priced in.

    EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO

    Two BBs have traded at around 835 dm. This is a little firmer than yesterday.

    Single Bs have traded around 1283 dm which is also a little firmer.


  • 7 March 2023

    EUR AAA CLO

    Just one AAA trade today, at 185 dm. AAA spreads seem rangebound at the moment.

    EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO

    A raft of BBs have traded, at an average spread of 905 dm. After the recent widening this is at the expected levels.

    There is one single B. DRYD 2020-89X F traded at 1496 dm. This is a very wide level for a single B but is justified because of its very low MVOC of 98.63%.

    Two equity pieces traded via BWIC, both St Paul’s deals. The yields are 31% and 46%. The higher yield is for a deal that has entered amortisation. NAVs in both cases are around about zero.


  • 6 March 2023

    USD CLO AAA

    $85m of liquidity across 15 trades AAA and mezz, US LSTA 100 Index bounces back +17bp since last set of CLO trades.  AAA trade 141dm-157dm with our AAA Index tightening to 156dm, the tight end of the range dominated by high MVOC trades with EoRP 2026 and a post reinvestment bond at the tight end.  OCP 2019-16A AR is the benchmark trade today CVR 98.65 at 157dm / 2.6y WAL (EoRP 2024) with clean metrics / Onex is the manager.

    USD CLO Mezz/Equity

    BBB trade 450dm-480dm with our BBB Index 456dm, a post reinvestment bond trades inside the index (450dm) and OCT43 2019-1A D trades wide of the index 480dm / 6.2y WAL given the higher coupon +390bps and elevated ADR 1%.  BB trade 869dm-1111dm with our BB Index 877dm, benchmark print today is VOYA 2020-2A ER CVR 88.42 at 871dm / 8.2y WAL – MVOC 104.1, EoRP 2026 and very clean metrics despite the manager’s slightly weaker record to its peers.

    EUR AAA CLO

    Just the one AAA today. RRME 3X A traded at 185 dm which may indicate that AAAs, after recent widening, have stabilised.

    EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO

    BBBs traded around 550 dm. Its been a while since BBBs traded on BWICs and when they did they were at around 520 dm. This softening is in line with primary spreads pushing out to a 6 handle, although the most recent, Voya Euro VI, came at +585.

    BBs have traded around +870. This is unchanged for secondary. In Primary Voya Euro VI came at +840 which may be due to the greater number of buyers for Primary paper.


  • 3 March 2023

    EUR AAA CLO

    There are a lot of AAA trades today. Secondary spreads are definitely wider. The average traded level is +193 which is about 10 bps softer. This hasn’t been reflected in the New Issue market where we learned that ICG Euro 2023-1 priced its AAA yesterday at +175.


  • 2 March 2023

    USD CLO AAA

    $150m of liquidity today with the first trading activity of the month, US LSTA 100 Index -14bp on month end and spreads continue to soften in high grade / senior.  AAA trade 147dm-176dm with benchmarks 155dm-168dm with our AAA Index shifting to 160dm.

    USD CLO Mezz/Equity

    $50m of AA trade 200dm-268dm with benchmarks 234dm-250dm and our AA Index softening to 236dm, trades well wide of the index 263dm-268dm have low MVOC 122-123% which is lower than benchmarks in 125-126% range.  BBB trade in a very wide basis 458dm-934dm (456dm BBB Index) with no benchmarks, at the tight end is REGT9 2017-1A D which is post reinvestment / strong MVOC as a result 109.75, the remaining trades are stressed bonds with MVOC ranging from 101-105% (with much credit deterioration too)  which is well south of benchmarks in 108-109% range.  2 x BB trade 1100dm-1306dm well wide of our BB Index 884dm given low MVOC, with a MV shortfall on ICG 2016-1A DRR which trades at the wide end CVR 77.5 at 1306dm / 7y WAL (ICG) – MVOC 99.27.

    EUR AAA CLO

    AAAs have traded around +180 today. Feels a little softer.

    EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO

    After yesterday’s day of weakness in BBs, today they look firmer. Two have traded, around 817 dm.


  • 1 March 2023

    EUR AAA CLO

    3 x AAAs traded today at around 175dm. Given the low margin on the bonds this is a slight softening and we see that also in the Primary market where Tikehau IX priced at +180.

    EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO

    One AA, BLUME 5X B, traded at 279 dm. This is in line with our previous spread curves, although again Tikehau IX priced wider at +325.

    BBB trading is interesting today. Secondary has traded around 520 dm, which is a firm level while at the same time Tikehau IX priced wider at +640. We can see the overall tightening that has taken place in the market from Jan to now because PENTA 2018-5X DR traded at 92.00 on 23 Jan and at 93.06 today.

    BBs, all Carlyle bonds, have traded around 950 dm. This feels softer and Tikehau IX priced a little wider at +865. But, again, the rally since Jan has been significant. CGMSE 2014-1X ER traded at 80.19 on 10 Jan and at 84.78 today.

    Single B’s have traded around 1277 dm in secondary. This is definitely softer, by maybe 30 – 40 bps. Tikehau IX priced at +1250.

    Contego equity, CONTE 6X SUBR, traded at 46.67 / 17.7%. It has a NAV of 5.19.


  • 24 February 2023

    USD CLO Mezz/Equity

    Just 2 trades today, subdued with the SF Vegas conference starting on the weekend.  US LSTA 100 Index -6bp dod and CLO spreads softer.  The BBB trade is BSP 2021-23A D CVR 93.84 at 478dm / 7.5y WAL - MVOC is strong 109.6, EoRP 2026, strong manager and coupon is at benchmark, we shift our BBB Index wider to 450dm.  The BB trade is BLUEM 2021-32A E CVR 86.27 at 934dm / 8.5y WAL - metrics are fairly good with only the weaker manager record dragging this bond wide to our BB Index 870dm.

    EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO

    It’s a light day’s trading today. Just a few junior mezz trades. From BBB to single B we see spreads very slightly drifting wider in secondary.


  • 23 February 2023

    USD CLO AAA

    $100m of liquidity today, US LSTA +14bp dod but CLO spreads continue to soften at the senior end.  AAA trade 145dm-185dm with benchmarks 147dm-159dm and our AAA Index softening to 150dm with those trades well wide to the index scaled by high coupon context bonds.  STHWK 2019-4A A1R covers 98.77 at 150dm / 3.1y WAL (EoRP 2024) with MVOC 148 and clean metrics managed by Blackstone and is proxy for benchmark.

    USD CLO Mezz/Equity

    1 x single-A trade in reinvestment CANYC 2019-1A CR cover 95.22 at 327dm / 5y WAL (EoRP 2024) – MVOC at benchmark 116.3 managed by Canyon Capital and trades near our single-A Index 322dm.  BBB trade 444dm-469dm with 2 of these post reinvestment bonds and the other is ANCHC 2020-15A DR CVR 92.8 at 469dm / 7.8y WAL – MVOC 111.8 but high WARF 3217 and weaker manager record (Anchorage) pull this wide of the BBB Index 427dm.

    EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO

    Feels like Jnr mezz spreads are drifting wider. Two BBs have traded around 925 dm. This is wider than recent days and DRYD 2020-89X E is particularly wide at 976 dm. PSTET 2023-1 priced its BB at 850 dm today.

    Two single B CVC Cordatus bonds have traded, around 1246 dm. This also feels a little softer on the day.


  • 22 February 2023

    USD CLO AAA

    $275m of liquidity today across the stack, with US LSTA continuing to soften -13bp dod.  AAA soften too, trading range today is 143dm-175dm with benchmarks 143dm-158dm and our AAA Index shifting to 145dm.

    USD CLO Mezz/Equity

    In mezz, most of the activity is in BB with 18 trades in a 761dm-1040dm range with benchmarks 851dm-935dm and our BB Index shifting wider to 872dm, the wider end of the trading range (wide of index) includes a MM CLO and credits with weaker MVOCs (<103) whilst the tighter end of the range is dominated by credits with strong MVOCs (>104.5).

    EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO

    The only AA trade, CRNCL 2017-8X B1, traded at 287 dm. Considering this is a low margin bond paying just 130 bps this is a widening in AA levels. We see that also in Bosphorus VIII pricing at +315 today.

    A lot of single A’s traded today, at around the 366 dm level. Again, given the low margin on the bonds, this is a widening by about 10bps on average. Bosphorus VIII priced at +440, which is 15 bps wider than Trinitas IV but 70 bps wider than Bushy Park.

    There are a lot of BBB trades. Their average stated margin is 320 bps and they traded at around 518 dm. Given their characteristics this is also a widening in BBB levels. Bosphorus VIII priced at +660 which is a lot wider than recent deals. Two of today’s trades also traded on 15 Feb. CORDA 22X D traded at 88.11 today and 91.13 on 15 Feb. HNLY 6X D traded at 91.03 today and 92.06 on 15 Feb.

    ANCHE 6X E, a BB, traded at 851 dm today – in line with our model prediction. Bosphorus VIII priced at +900, about 75 bps wider than recent new issues.

    In single B MROPK 1X E has traded at 1167 dm, again as expected. We have a single B new issue pricing point because Bosphorus VIII printed at +1249.

    There are 4 equity trades. All traded with a 5 handle in price and between 23% and 25% in yield. NAVs ranged from -4 to +20.