Market Commentaries



Eur/GBP

USD  

 

Feedback on Commentaries and Analysis is welcome
Sheil Aggarwal


select * from bbg_commentary where 1=1 order by date desc
  • 12 November 2021

    USD CLO AAA

    US LL Index +2bp dod whilst only 3 x second pay MM CLO AAA trades today.  The higher coupon (180/250bps) bonds hit their par ceilings, MCMML 2020-1A A is a Middle Market 2nd pay bond too so has an especially high coupon of +250bps coupon and covers at 100.31 at 241dm / 3.6y WAL (MVOC 188 and 0 ADR).  One trade is at a discount today MCFCL 2018-1A A1 which has a lower coupon +137bps (which is in line more with BSL CLO 2nd pays) and covers 99.89 at 142dm / 2.4y WAL, metrics are clean so the coupon drives the execution price.

    EUR AAA CLO

    Just the 3 x AAA trades today. Avoca 11 and Penta 3 are both in amortisation. The spread range is from 103dm to 112dm. All 3 bonds have been callable for a couple of years but, as stated, two of them are paying down.


  • 11 November 2021

    EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO

    Just 4 mezz EUR trades today. The only single A, Blackrock 9, traded at 100.18 / 253dm.

    There are 3 x BBBs. Palmerstone Park is in amortisation and the BBB traded at 350dm. The other two are Avoca bonds and traded around 400dm.


  • 10 November 2021

    USD CLO AAA

    US LL Index +2bp on the day, spreads stable today with 16 trades.  9 x AAA trades with 3 x 2nd pays which all trade at a small discount to par, at 133dm-148dm, whilst 1st pays with coupons as low as +93bps and still in reinvestment period do execute at their par ceilings.  Our AAA index is 110dm whilst new issue is as wide as +118-121 bps guidance.

    USD CLO Mezz/Equity

    7 x BBs trade in a 6pt cash px dispersion and dm range 583dm-731dm with our BB index is 663dm, trades that hit their par ceiling are CRMN 2016-1A D and DRSLF 2014-36A ER2 which both have coupons > 660bps and have both entered post reinvestment periods recently as in this year.  At the wide end of trading activity is HAYFN 2018-9A ER which covers at 94 at 731dm / 6.1y WAL, ADR is elevated at 1.1, coupon is lower +615bps and cov-lite exposure is 40%.

    EUR AAA CLO

    At last we have a busy day in EUR CLOs. There are 6 x AAA trades. All the trades except for Black Diamond 2017-2 have traded up, between 1 and 5bps tighter. By contrast Black Diamond 2017-2 appears to have attracted a manager spread premium even after allowing for the high margin on the bond.

    EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO

    There are 4 x AA trades. They have all traded between H150s to L160s dm. BlackRock 4 AA attracted a manager spread discount.

    There are 6 x A trades. Dryden 35 2014 has a high margin of 260bps and traded at 100.34 / 270dm. All the others traded around 230dm.

    There are 2 x BBB trades. Both traded at 360dm. Unusually the Sculptor bond did not attract the spread premium it normally does and traded in line with Hayfin.

    There are 3 x BB trades. GoldenTree 2 has a low margin but also a low MVOC and netted out to 658dm. Toro 6 is much cleaner and has a margin of 649bps and traded at 673dm. Madison Park 8 has the highest margin at 715bps and traded at 728dm.

    There are 8 x B trades. Bosphorus 4 traded the tightest at 754dm. Most of the others were around 920dm.


  • 9 November 2021

    EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO

    Just the one single A trade today. Madison Park 6 traded at 100.14 / 219dm. The bond recently became callable and has a margin of 200bps. It is performing well with a MVOC of 128.73% and a Jnr OC cushion of 3.99%.


  • 8 November 2021

    USD CLO AAA

    US LL Index +14bp on the week.  Just one trade today SNDPT 2018-1A A which has a +100bps coupon, covers at par ceiling at 99dm / 3.3y WAL, EoRP is 2023 and is post NC with metrics relatively clean.  Our AAA index is 112dm.


  • 4 November 2021

    USD CLO AAA

    15 covers today, senior spreads flat with some mild softening on lower mezz, US LL Index -1bp on the day.  3 x 1st pay AAAs hit par ceilings and our AAA index 109dm remains unchanged.

    USD CLO Mezz/Equity

    1 x BBB trade MP11 2017-2A D with a low coupon +280bps covers at a large discount 93 at 428dm / 5y WAL, which is wide to our index 332dm (new issue +325bps area guidance) since fundamentals are weak – ADR 1.2, Jnr OC cushion is cuspy 1.1, MVOC is at the lower end 108.7 and the manager (Marble Point) record is weak to peers.  8 x BB trades with a 6pt cash px dispersion from par and dm range 651dm-789dm with our BB index 669dm (new issue +640bps area). TCW 2019-2A E trades at a premium to par 100.13 at 738dm / 7.6y WAL – high coupon +740bps, strong MVOC 108.2, low ADR 0.5 and strong Jnr OC cushion 4.9.  Tiering is thereafter driven by coupon structure and MVOC, AWPT 2016-5A ER covers 94.05 at 754dm / 6.6y WAL (coupon +635bps, MVOC 105.6).  3 x single-B trades in a dm range 858dm-894dm with cover prices at a discount, tiering is driven in a similar way to BB bonds (margin and MVOC) but also sensitivity to ADR and Jnr OC cushion given these bonds can PIK.  There are 2 x PGIM bonds with a similar EoRP but coupons are +715bps and +827bps whilst the lower coupon bond DRSLF 2018-64A F does also struggle with a higher ADR 1.3 (v 0.9) and a lower Jnr OC cushion 3% (vs 4.7%) and this translate to > 6pts difference in execution price.  Our single-B index is 840dm.

    EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO

    Just 2 x B trades today. Madison Park 11 traded at 92.85 / 824dm and Carlyle 2015-1 at 94.29 / 925dm. Both bonds have MVOCs on the low side of around 105.7% and the Madison Park 11 bond has a Junior OC Cushion of only 2.3%.


  • 3 November 2021

    USD CLO AAA

    30 covers today, US LL Index -3bp on the day.  A 2nd pay AAA BLUEM 2017-3A A2 EoRP 2023 covers at a small discount 99.79 at 118dm / 6.5y WAL.  AAA index 109dm.

    USD CLO Mezz/Equity

    2 x AAs trade at a discount, coupons on both are < 150bps with new issue +165bps area and our AA index 160dm, other metrics are in line.  At single-A new issue guidance is +205bps area and bonds with coupons < 200bps tend to trade at a small discount given inherent callability likelihood.  HLA 2017-2A B from Bardin Hill has EoRP 2022 / post NC with a +210bps coupon but covers at a small discount 99.86 at 214dm / 4y WAL, predominantly due to the manager’s weaker record.  At BB spreads flat on the day with a trading range of 553dm-726dm and our BB index 662dm (new issue +640bps area).  See PriceABS trade listing for details.

    EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO

    We’ve got a bunch of mezz trades to look at today. There are 7 x BBB. Newhaven 2 and Avoca 18 have traded around 275dm because of their low coupon. The rest are mostly in the LM 300s DM. Overall we think BBBs are edging tighter.

    The only single B trade, Madison Park 7, traded at 92h / approx. 795dm. This is lower than our model predicted but the lack of depth in single Bs makes it hard to determine if this is a one-off or not.


  • 2 November 2021

    USD CLO AAA

    17 covers today, spreads stable and US LL Index +1bp dod.  6 x AAA trades all hit par ceilings.  AAA index 109dm.

    USD CLO Mezz/Equity

    6 x BB trades, 7pt cash px dispersion and 644dm-808dm range, BB index 661dm (new issue +640bps).  ROCKT 2021-2A E, a recent vintage, covers near par at 99.68 at 644dm / 9.9y WAL with EoRP 2026 and +640bps coupon and a strong MVOC 107.6 / clean metrics associated with recent vintages.  At the other end of the spectrum is ATCLO 2016-7A ER which covers at 92.65 at 787dm / 6.7y WAL with a similar coupon +640bps and a shorter wal (EoRP 2023), MVOC is weaker 105, ADR is elevated 1.2, 5% CCC, Jnr OC cushion is cuspy 1.2 and the manager Crescent Capital’s record is weaker to peers.


  • 1 November 2021

    USD CLO Mezz/Equity

    Just one trade today, CYGPK 2020-1A DR a BBB covers at par ceiling 305dm / 8.8y WAL, bond coupon +310bps with long wal (EoRP 2026)with new issue in +325bp guidance, so market is pricing in some tightening for clean bonds like this.  Our BBB index remains at 340dm.


  • 29 October 2021

    USD CLO AAA

    With month end today there is limited liquidity and all high grade with 8 covers / $75m of liquidity, US LL Index -1bp dod and -1bp on Sep month end.  4 x AAA trades hit their par ceilings, the profiles are all post reinvestment with low coupons (+80-82bps) short wals.  AAA index is 109dm.

    USD CLO Mezz/Equity

    4 x AA trades also hit their par ceilings, with coupons +165-170bps and execution dm range 160dm-165dm, new is in similar context (+165bps area guidance) and our AA index 161dm.

    EUR AAA CLO

    There are 6 x AAA trades today. One of them, Contego 4, is amortising and it traded at 95dm. The others traded between 104dm and 124dm depending mostly on their margin and their chances of a refi/reset.


  • 28 October 2021

    USD CLO AAA

    50 covers today across the liability stack.  AAAs trade at par ceilings including a 2nd pay MDPK 2015-18A A2R at 134dm / 6.2y WAL with a +135bps coupon.  Our AAA index is 110dm.

    USD CLO Mezz/Equity

    AA and A bonds trade at par ceilings with the exception of a single-A rated ALLEG 2018-1A C CVR 99.83 at 193dm / 5.3y WAL – coupon is +190bps / clean metrics, new issue is +205bps guidance so less inherent callability.  At BBB WINDR 2013-1A CR covers at par ceiling at 364dm / 5.3y WAL – coupon is high +365bps whilst metrics are fairly average with ADR high at 1.9.  New issue is talked +312bps area so with the NC less than 2 months away this bond has some inherent callability.  Our BBB index is 332dm.  At BB the trading range is 564dm-824dm with a 10pt cash px dispersion, our BB index is 657dm, with the bonds hitting par ceilings carrying coupons > +600bps, strong MVOC and low ADRs along with strong Jnr OC cushions.


  • 27 October 2021

    USD CLO AAA

    Just under 50 covers today across the stack, spreads overall fairly stable with US LL Index -1bp dod.  6 x AAA trades hit their par ceilings, including bonds with coupons into the mid-90s area within reinvestment.  Our AAA index is 109dm.

    USD CLO Mezz/Equity

    4 x single-A trades hit their ceilings too, with GWOLF 2015-1A BR seeing execution at 199dm / 4.6y WAL (coupon +200bps, EoRP 2023), our single-A index is 230dm with new issue in 200bps area guidance.  15 x BBB trades 259dm-455dm with 19m of liquidity and the majority of trades at their par ceilings with typically higher coupons (>300bps) driving execution to this level, bonds with coupons below 300bps trade at a discount with also LCM 25A D CVR 97.21 at 408dm (high coupon +345bps) but MVOC is low 108.8, Jnr OC cushion is cuspy at 1.05 and ADR is slightly elevated.  At BB there are 16 trades in a 528dm-755dm range and 8p cash px dispersion, one trade SPEAK 2019-1A E hits par ceiling – profile here is EoRP 2024, high coupon +689bps, strong MVOC 108 and clean metrics.  At the other end of the scale is LCM 17X ER CVR 92.3 at 755dm / 6.6y WAL (EoRP 2023) but coupon is lower +600bps, MVOC is weak 104.6 and Jnr OC cushion is low 1.5 whilst LCM’s manager record is weak to peers.


  • 26 October 2021

    USD CLO Mezz/Equity

    14 mezz trades, US LL Index -1bp.  BBB trading is 279dm-380dm, our BBB index is 330dm while new issue is +312bp area guidance.  There is distinctive tiering between sub-300bp coupon bonds (trading at a discount) and > 300bps coupon bonds which trade at or around par ceiling.  BLUEM 2017-3A D covers 97.89 at 282dm / 5.6y WAL, coupon +240bps and ADR elevated 1.2 and Jnr OC at 3.4 which is back to benchmark levels at 4+.  At BB there are 9 trades in a 2pt cash px dispersion and dm range 610dm-721dm.  WINDR 2019-2A E has positive execution at par ceiling, EoRP 2024, coupon is high +725bps and metrics are clean with dm 721dm / 7.6y WAL so this bond has strong risk adjusted cashflows.


  • 25 October 2021

    USD CLO Mezz/Equity

    9 x small debt trades today, all mezz, spreads flat on the day whilst US LL Index -1bp dod.  At the BBB level there are 2 trades at a discount MAGNE 2012-7A CR2 and HLM 12A-18 C with both carrying lower MVOCs (111) vs benchmark (113+) whilst ADR and Jnr OC cushions drive tiering and the severity of the discount.  At the BB level VENTR 2020-39A E covers at a discount 98.89 at 782dm / 8.6y WAL, this is a 3.0 bond with a coupon of +763bps with clean metrics (MVOC 108.5) however MJX’s manager record is weak to peers, our BB index is 668dm with new issue +640bp guidance whilst this bond has a long wal given the EoRP is 2025.


  • 22 October 2021

    USD CLO AAA

    26 covers today, $23m of liquidity and US LL Index continues tightens +3bps.  At AAA all trades hit par ceiling including a 2nd pay LCM 19A BR at 173dm / 2.3y WAL and numerous lower coupon bonds (as low as +80bps) which are post reinvestment.  Our AAA index is 107dm.

    USD CLO Mezz/Equity

    1 x AA trade small clip of CERB 2021-3A B that has c coupon pf +185bps covers near par 99.99 at 185dm whilst at single-A there is also one trade ANCHC 2020-15A CR that covers at par ceiling 223dm / 8.4y WAL (coupon +225bps / clean metrics) very close to our index level 231dm.  At BBB 2 trades hit par ceilings with coupons >325bps, MVOC 113-117 and EoRP 2023/2024 whilst three bonds trade at a discount with coupons <270bps and lower MVOC 110-112, APID 2013-12A DR covers at 96.70 at 324dm / 5.8y WAL, this has a low coupon +260bps, MVOC 109.9 and Jnr OC cushion 2.3 (vs 5%+ for benchmark).  Our BBB index is 331dm.  At BB, one trade hits par ceiling BLUEM 2016-2A DR with a high coupon +779bps at 775dm / 8y WAL with CCC high at 9.7 but other metrics clean.  The trading range for the remaining trades is 654dm-826dm with our BB index 667dm so there are some heavily discounted bonds that trade today, at the wide end is LCM 18X ER with CVR 91.88 at 763dm / 6.3y WAL, this bond has a low coupon +595bps, low MVOC 104.7 and low Jnr OC cushion 1.45 and LCM’s manager record is weak to peers.


  • 21 October 2021

    USD CLO Mezz/Equity

    32 trades today, all low mezz/equity, spreads once again steady with US LL Index flat dod.  11 x BBB trades, 23m of liquidity with a 4.5pt cash px dispersion with dm range 280dm-400dm, our BBB index is 331dm with new issue in +310bps guidance context.  APID 2012-11A DR3 a 3.0 CLO covers at a significant premium 101.17 at 358dm / 8.6y WAL due to a high coupon +375bps (EoRP 2026) and strong risk adjusted cashflows from a benchmark manager CVC.  At the other end of the scale is WINDR 2014-1A DRR CVR 96.77 at a similar dm 361dm / 6.1y WAL but coupon is lower +300bps, Jnr OC cushion is low 1.9, ADR is elevated 1.3, Sub80 1.1, Par build -0.6, MVOC 110.3 (vs APID 2012 112.6) whilst First Eagle is inexperienced with a higher default record vs peers.  8 x BB trades with 30m of liquidity with a 2.5pt cash px dispersion with a dm range 512dm-740dm, our BB index is 668dm with new issue +640bps context.  BLUEM 2013-1A DR covers at par ceiling – high coupon +750bps, strong MVOC 107.7 despite a high ADR 1.9.


  • 20 October 2021

    USD CLO Mezz/Equity

    7 covers today with spreads again relatively unchanged, US LL Index also flat on the day.  2 mezz trades that didn’t hit their par ceilings include firstly FCBSL 2017-2A B1 (AA rated) with a +170bps coupon / EoRP 2022 and covers at a small discount 99.77 at 176dm / 3.8y WAL – ADR is high at 1.4 and CCC is also high at 9.8 pulling execution to a small discount.  ROCKT 2017-3A D (BB rated) has a lower coupon +265bps (vs new issue +310bps guidance / secondary BBB index 329dm) whilst other metrics are clean.

    EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO

    There are 4 trades today. The AA, Cairn 9, traded at 141dm.

    Both single As have traded at 185dm. This is a tightening of our curve by around 5bps.

    The BBB, Rockford Tower 2019-1, traded at 377dm.

    Overall spreads in both primary and secondary have been range bound since the summer.


  • 19 October 2021

    USD CLO AAA

    40 covers today across the stack, spreads remain stable and US LL Index +1bp dod.  AAA trades all hit their par ceilings including SYMP 2018-19A A which has a coupon of +96bps and EoRP 2023 with clean performance metrics.  Our AAA index is 106dm. 

    USD CLO Mezz/Equity

    1 x AA trade VIBR 2018-8A A2 CVR 99.72 at 154dm / 4.3y WAL with EoRP 2023 and a bond coupon +147bps whilst new issue is in +165bps guidance context so there’s limited callability, furthermore the ADR is elevated 1.4 and Jnr OC cushion is low at 1.3.  At the single-A level there are multiple trades today, with those bonds hitting par ceiling typically with coupons > 200bps, strong MVOC >120, lower ADR and strong Jnr OC cushions.  VOYA 2016-1A BR trades at the wide end at CVR 99.05 at 201dm / 4.8y WAL – low MVOC 116.5, high CCC 7.2, low Jnr OC cushion 1.8 whilst coupon is low at +180bps.  All but one of the 10 x BBB trades hits par ceiling, GWOLF 2018-1A C covers at a small discount at 299dm / 5.9y WAL, predominantly due to it’s lower coupon (ie. <300bps) at +295bps, high CCC 7.8, high WARF 3099 and the high ADR 1.7 which is also in line with the manager’s overall experience level.  Our BBB index is 329dm with new issue in L300s context.  At the BB level there are 5 trades with 3 trading at par ceilings, our BB index is 672dm with new issue guidance +640area.  CIFC 2018-4A D trades at a small discount at 605dm / 6.6y WAL (EoRP 2023), coupon is low +590bps and WARF high 3000 with other metrics in line.

    EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO

    Just 2 x AA trades today. Both bonds are from deals in amortisation and both traded around 172dm.


  • 18 October 2021

    USD CLO AAA

    20 covers today with $75m of liquidity and spreads stable, US LL Index -1bp on the day.  AAA trades hit their par ceiling, all 1st pay with coupons >100bps and in reinvestment.  Our AAA index is 107dm.

    USD CLO Mezz/Equity

    At single-A there are 7 trades with a 3.0 ELM11 2021-4A C (Elmwood) hitting par ceiling, this has the highest coupon of all the trades today +195bps with characteristic clean metrics.  At BBB there are 2 trades, MVW 2014-1A DRR which is well past reinvestment end and delevering covers at par ceiling 355dm / 2.5y WAL whilst GUGG4 2016-1A CR from Guggenheim (EoRP 2023) with a +335bps coupon covers 98.85at 357dm / 6.1y WAL, new issue +315bp guidance but Jnr OC cushion is cuspy at 1.7 / bond coupon +335bps whilst our BBB index is at 329dm.  At BB there are 5 trades with the majority hitting par ceilings (all in reinvestment), coupons on these bonds are > 680bps, MVOC are strong > 108, clean metrics and strong Jnr OC cushions, new issue guidance is +650bps and our BB index is 672dm with trading range today 682dm-710dm.  OZLM 2018-20A D trades at the wide end CVR 93.65 at 709dm / 6.4y WAL – MVOC is at the low end 105.5, ADR is elevated 1.4 and Jnr OC cushion is cuspy at 1.6 with a low bond coupon of +580bps meaning risk adjusted cashflows are weak hence the execution level.


  • 15 October 2021

    USD CLO Mezz/Equity

    Only 6 mezz covers to round off the week with 13m of liquidity, US LL Index -1bp on the week.  All trades hit par ceilings with the exception of a BB original rated (now B+) LCM 21A ER which covers 99.61 at 585dm / 4.6y WAL – this bond is post reinvestment and has a ‘low’ coupon of +575bps, has a MVOC 2pt lower to benchmark at 107, elevated ADR 1.3 and Sub80 bucket 2.4 whilst the manager LCM AM’s track record is weak to peers, especially in managing cushions which are key to lower mezz investors, so execution does lag on this bond which is from a delevering deal.  Our BB generic index is 672dm with new issue in M600s area.

    EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO

    All the activity today is mezz. There is one AA trade, Black Diamond 2017-2, which traded at 99.85 / 178dm.

    There are 11 x A trades. Leaving aside the 2 amortising deals, Black Diamond 2015-1 and CVC Cordatus 5, the rest have traded around 245dm.


  • 14 October 2021

    USD CLO AAA

    56 covers today across the stack with almost $150m of liquidity, spreads a touch softer across mezz but AAA remains unchanged, US LL Index is flat dod.  AAA bonds all trade at par ceilings.

    USD CLO Mezz/Equity

    At the AA level three of the four trades are MM CLOs which trade at par ceilings with the exception of MCMML 2018-1A B (coupon is <200bps at +175bps) CVR 99.75 at 182dm / 3.8y WAL – MVOC is at the lower end 147.8 with other metrics broadly in line.  At the BBB level there are 9 trades in a 2pt cash px dispersion and dm range 292dm-506dm with the majority of trades hitting par ceilings, there is one outlier trade VIBR 2016-4A DR CVR 98.55 at 458dm / 7.1y WAL – MVOC is low 109.8, ADR is high 1.6, Sub80 bucket is high 2.5 and Jnr OC cushion is at the lower end 2.2 whilst the higher coupon +433bps doesn’t compensate in terms of risk adjusted cashflows and hence execution is at a discount.  At the BB level there are 22 trades / 45m notional over a 12pt cash px dispersion and dm range 537dm-925dm, our BB index widens slightly to 683dm with new issue in M600s area.  NEUB 2019-31A ER covers at par ceiling at 647dm / 7.6y WAL (coupon +650bps and EoRP 2024) with a strong MVOC 107.8 despite an elevated ADR 1.2 there is strong cushion (Jnr OC cushion 4.1), low Sub80 0.3.  At the wide end is BLACK 2016-1A DR with CVR at 88.45 at 799dm / 6.4y WAL (EoRP 2023 / bond coupon +560bps) – MVOC is low 105.6, ADR 1.7 with the manager Black Diamond’s record is mixed with a higher default record than peers and in line with this transaction, whilst the bond coupon is well short of new issue levels.  4 x single-B trades 936dm-1156dm with a 10pt cash px dispersion, MDPK 2015-17A FR covers 91.06 at 936dm / 6.6y WAL and trades close to our B index (931dm) – MVOC is at the high end of single-Bs 104, Sub80 bucket is healthy 0.98, Jnr OC cushion 2.5 with a coupon +748bps.  At the wide end is ATCLO 2018-10A F CVR 81.31 at 1148dm / 7.9y WAL – MVOC is a pt back at 103, ADR is elevated 1.5 and Jnr OC cushion is cuspy at 1.3 whilst coupon is comparable to the CSAM bond at +772bps. 

    EUR AAA CLO

    It’s a massive day’s trading today with 51 EUR bonds in total. 24 of these are AAA. Just about all the trades are between 110dm and 120dm. Jubilee 2015-15 is an exception because it is amortising, it traded at 84dm.

    EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO

    There are 7 x AA trades. They have mostly traded between 165 and 170dm. Harvest 10 traded at 133dm but it has been upgraded to AAA due to amortisation.

    There are 6 x A trades. All apart from Cairn 9 have traded between 220dm and 237dm. Cairn 9 traded at 186dm due to its low margin of 150bps.

    The 3 x BBB trade spreads have followed their margins. The DMs range from 289dm to 345dm.

    There are 6 x BB trades. Carlyle 2015-3 traded at 560dm. The others traded from 620dm to 690dm. Carlyle 2015-3 has both a low margin (470bps) and weak credit metrics. The other bond with weak metrics is the Penta 7 bond which traded at 620dm.

    There are 5 x B trades, with spreads between 800 and 900dm.